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Game Review: NBA 2K12 (PS3)

February 21, 2012 in Basketball, Game Reviews, NBA, Reviews, Sport

I really need to find more time to play video games these days.  Despite purchasing the game on DAY ONE, I have only recently found time (well, at least at the time I typed this sentence a few weeks ago) to play enough of NBA 2K12 to be able to give my thoughts about it and found the time to write the darn review.

It’s easy to proclaim 2K12 as the greatest basketball simulation of all time.  After all, 2K11 was the previous GOAT and there has been nothing to challenge it since, especially considering that the NBA Live (aka Elite) team is still on hiatus after the embarrassing debacle that was NBA Elite 2011, the game that never was.

That said, I’m not going to judge 2K12 as a an independent video game.  It’s only fair that I compare the game to its predecessor, 2K11, because that’s the only yardstick people can compare to.

So does the 2K12 compare favourably to 2K11?  On the whole, yes.  The best improvements are the controls, the simplified playcalling, the widened legends roster, more legendary teams, and the presentation.  But to be perfectly honest, it’s not a revolutionary advancement in the franchise.

Let’s break it down.

Visuals

The graphics are supposed to be improved, but I really could not tell.  In fact, some friends have told me that they felt the visuals actually took a step back this year.

There’s just something different about it, as though the level of detail has been pared back slightly.  The players don’t look quite as shiny during the gameplay, though the close up cut scenes are as impressive as ever.  Another improvement is the extent to which the computerised players resemble their real life counterparts (for instance, Kobe looks less like an alien).  One of the biggest problems before — the bad hairdos of white guys (including coaches) — has been fixed somewhat.  It’s not perfect but it’s a step in the right direction.

There has been an improvement, but white dudes' hairstyles still don't look quite right

This year, with the new NBA’s Greatest (discussed below), the creators of the game also ingeniously tried to emulate the TV broadcast quality of times gone by, so if you play an 80s game, the colours are less sharp, and if you play a 60s game, the game is fuzzier and in black and white.  Even though it’s kind of gimmicky, it’s a nice added touch.

Ultimately, I think it’s possible that the visuals are more realistic but less detailed.  It looks more like a live game you would see on TV rather than a video game with mind-blowing graphics.  Does that make sense?

Sound

Not a lot of improvement here.  New music, a new commentator (Steve Kerr, replacing Clark Kellogg and joining Kevin Harlan), but not a whole lot of freshness.  Not to say the commentary isn’t good, but in terms of variety and the amount of excitement it can add to the game, I think it has essentially peaked for the series.  The only real way to improve it is to make the commentary more varied, more dynamic and more excited when players make big plays.

Presentation

Improved again from last year.  Not dramatic changes in terms of the menus (just more streamlined) but I quite like the changes they made in stuff like player intros, the half time reports and the post game features like Player of the Game, etc.  You can tell they put a lot of effort into making the game seem like a real TV broadcast.

Gameplay

Last year I thought the gameplay was already pretty awesome, and this year they upped it another notch.

It might take a little while to get used to the changes, but it’s worth trying the various tutorials and drills to get the hang of them before playing proper games.  It makes a HUGE difference when you feel more in control of the players you are controlling.  It not only makes you a better player, it makes the games far more exciting.

The best improvements are in the areas of post play (offense and defense) and off the ball movement.  There is an entire tutorial teaching you how to fake out your opponent when playing without the ball.  You can learn how to pound the ball inside and wreak havoc down low like Kevin McHale or Hakeem Olajuwon by using an encyclopaedia of post moves.  It’s awesome.  Your ability to call for screens, utilise the give-and-go, perform up-and-unders, hop steps, spin moves, in-and-outs, behind the back dribbles, crossovers, Euro steps, face-up moves — the whole shebang — makes the game super real and will keep players coming back as they improve their techniques with the control pad.

That’s the best thing — you can play on the lower levels with just the basics and it’ll be fine, but as you get to the more difficult settings, you really need to learn the entire repertoire of moves to have a chance against your opponents.

The computer AI is also improved, though it might be hard to tell for casual gamers unless you line the two up side by side.  But it’s there.  Fast breaks are better on both sides of the ball.  Crazy passes are less likely to thread through untouched.  If you run into teammates you’ll lose the ball.  Playcalling has been simplified and you can simply call plays for particular players or just call the best play available.  It’s the little things that have made the biggest differences in the game.

Game Modes

You still have the same stuff from last year, so I won’t go through them all.  The new headline mode is the aforementioned NBA’s Greatest.  Last year it was reliving Michael Jordan’s greatest moments — a good idea that got old real quick.  This year, there are a lot more legends and you only need to complete one challenge game to unlock more stuff, and all you have to do is win the freaking game.  You got guys like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Scottie Pippen, Isiah Thomas, Bill Russell, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, Karl Malone, John Stockton, and so on.  It’s fine, but it’s still a single playthrough kind of mode.

The modes you’ll spend most of your time on are still the Association Mode and My Player Mode.

Association Mode is largely unchanged, but it’s still the most packed mode in the game that will allow you to play for hours and hours through years of NBA seasons, playing games, organising rosters, scouting new rookies, making trades, signing players, scheduling practices, developing young players and so forth.

A little overboard for the 14th pick of a weak draft, but these little touches make 2K12 fun

My Player Mode is slightly improved.  The biggest change is that instead of going in the D-League to start off, you get to play in a showcase game which will determine where you go in the NBA Draft.  If you play well enough you get drafted, which is pretty cool (they show the whole process, including handshakes with Commissioner David Stern), and you’ll get a chance to fight for a starting position straight away.  Jeremy Lin, anyone?

There are also add on downloadable features, such as the Legends Showcase.  I’m too cheap to get it, but here’s a review and it seems decent if you are into living in the past and playing with legends all day long.

Online

Not for me, but I hear that the online mode is not very stable, at least not on the PS3.  Apparently, a lot of people have flooded back to 2K11′s online mode, which is a huge indictment of this year’s game.

The good thing about having the Internets is that you can update your roster to keep them up-to-date with what’s been happening in real NBA (eg, I hear Jeremy Lin recently got a stats upgrade). You can also download fan-made rosters and players, so you can get your hands on players who aren’t licensed for the game — the main ones being Reggie Miller, Charles Barkley and Allen Iverson.  If you have a lot of time on your hands you can also create your own players and teams and share them with others.

Reckon there's going to be a lot of Linsanities online?

Playstation Move

This was one of the things 2K played up in the lead up to the release — you can play 2K12 with the Playstation Move!  Wow!  And it’s so easy and intuitive anyone can do it on their first try!

Err…no, that idea just stinks.  If you want to play real basketball, pick up a ball and go outside.   I haven’t even bothered trying the Move mode of the game.  It’s a waste of time.

Check this out and tell me it’s not lame.

Conclusion

So is 2K12 worth getting if you already have 2K11?  Now?  Yes.  Originally, when the game was first released, the NBA was still in lockout mode, meaning you had only a couple of the pre-signed rookies in this year’s class.  With the NBA now in full swing, you can download the official updated rosters or the fan-made ones.

For me, the greatest improvement was the controls and gameplay.  If you have the patience to lean the moves, 2K12 becomes much more enjoyable than 2K11.  All the other improvements, such as the presentation and the graphics (if you call it an improvement) were nice, but they’re not game changers.  If you can’t let go of the past and feel the urge to keep using Larry Bird to shoot over Chuck Person while saying, “Merry F&*%ing Christmas”, then the NBA’s Greatest Mode would also be a great reason to buy the game.

At the end of the day, 2K12 is of course a better game than 2K11, but it didn’t blow me away like I thought it would.  Nonetheless, credit must go to 2K for making the effort to improve last year’s game when they had zero competition.  It will still be the most played game in my collection until 2K13.

8.5 out of 10

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Getting Ripped Off By NBA League Pass!

December 26, 2010 in Basketball, Blogging, NBA

Update 1 (5 November 2011): It seems League Pass is still ripping people off but in a different way.  This season they have stopped offering monthly passes (unlike in past years) and are only offering season-long passes for either the entire league or just your favourite team, but have continued to allow monthly payments.  Naturally, this would confuse some people into thinking that it is a monthly subscription that can be cancelled at any time, but apparently once you have put in your credit card details they refuse to refund or cancel your subscription no matter what.  Check the latest comments for more details, including the response from League Pass.

Update 2 (21 April 2012): NBA League Pass (NBA TV) is still ripping people off. Badly. Their business model is basically to make it very easy for you to sign up, so easy that it is likely that you’ll miss the crucial terms such as no refunds after the first 48 hours — under no circumstances whatsoever. In other words, if you sign up for a season and you change your mind after 48 hours, too bad. You’re locked in. And if you don’t cancel before the end of that season, it automatically rolls over for another one. But the problem is, they make it virtually impossible for you to figure out how to cancel within 48 hours. The so-called “cancellation clause” in the terms is pointless because the link does not work. It still doesn’t — I just checked. I also checked the support page and lots of people are up in arms over this. I noticed a comment saying that the link doesn’t work, and the reply was that they will be updated “shortly”. Well, that was over a month ago. You are still forced to email them at: [email protected] – however, I have been told that they won’t necessarily respond or won’t respond quickly, so you need to be very forceful and just tell them to cancel it, straight up.

IN SHORT: NBA League Pass automatically renews your membership every time it expires (regardless if it is monthly or yearly) and there is no way to cancel your membership on the website or on your account page (despite what it says in the terms and conditions when you sign up).  The only way to cancel at the time of writing is to send an email to [email protected] (and this email address is nowhere to be found on the website on on your account page).

I just finished watching the LA Lakers getting spanked by the Miami Heat on Christmas Day, courtesy of NBA League Pass.

Don’t get me wrong — I love the League Pass, which allows subscribers to watch every NBA game in HD on their computers for around US$20 a month or US$100 for a season (which doesn’t save much considering the season goes from late October to mid-April) — playoffs cost more.

It uses up a lot of bandwidth, but it’s a dream come true for any NBA fanatic.  If you upgrade to the premium service you can even watch four games at a time and rewind and fast forward at all, and every past game of the season is also catalogued in full or in condensed mode.

However, if you have signed up for it or intend to sign up for it, let me give you a word of warning.  Be very careful, or you’ll get ripped off like I did.

I first signed up to the free trial at the commencement of he 2010-2011 NBA season, and liked it so much that when the free pass expired at the beginning of November I decided to sign up for a month at a discounted rate (around AU$20).  I enjoyed it for a month and forgot about it until the Christmas period, when I decided to give it another go.

To my surprise, my League Pass account was still active, as was my “Monthly” subscription.  It still worked too, which made me realise that the subscription must have automatically rolled over at the end of the month.  Fine, that’s my fault.  I didn’t read the fine print carefully enough when I signed up.  Lots of Internet businesses use the same method (especially under the guise of “free trials” that require your credit card details) to catch less astute consumers off-guard.

Anyway, here is the deal.  When you sign up, at the billing page, you enter your credit card details, etc, and there is a small box containing the ‘Terms of Use’ just before you can click the place the order.

Most people don’t read this stuff.  It’s in a small box, and print is small, and you have to scroll down to read the 5000+ words of terms and conditions.  As I do not live in the States, the terms on my computer were for non-US users.

The relevant provision is this, about a fifth of the way into the terms (I had to dig this up by pretending to be a new subscriber):

Subscriptions and periodic billing: Monthly, Regular Season and Playoffs subscriptions begin when you place your order and will renew automatically at the selected interval (Monthly, Regular Season or Playoffs), until terminated by you as provided in this Agreement.

In other words, if you subscribe, your subscription will be automatically renewed.  I only had to pay an extra month — but it’s the same if you paid for an entire season.  You’ll get automatically billed again if you don’t terminate the subscription.

As it said very clearly a little further down:

ALL SALES ARE FINAL.  We do not give full or partial refunds for subscriptions that you have purchased regardless of the basis for the refund REQUEST.

With a few days left before my monthly subscription automatically renews for a third month, I decided to terminate my subscription.

And here is the problem.  There is no way to do it!

I went into the “My Account” page after logging in and looked around everywhere.  Nothing.  Not a single mention of being able to cancel or terminate the subscription.  Not even in the FAQ, Help or Terms of Use pages (the Terms of Use link was different to what I was presented with when I signed up and did not mention cancellation).  I tried to delete all my Billing Information, but that didn’t work either, not unless I put in another valid credit card.

To add fuel to the fire, there is no email address to contact anyone from NBA League Pass from the “My Account” page or the League Pass front page.  It’s as though they purposely tried to prevent any possible method of cancelling your subscription.

I then pretended I wanted to sign up for a new account and went into the billing page, where I was again presented with the Terms of Use (the one that stipulated the automatic renewal).  These terms do have a termination clause, which states:

YOUR RIGHT TO CANCEL YOUR SUBSCRIPTION

You may elect to cancel your subscription at any time by visiting http://ilp.nba.com/myaccount.  Your election will be deemed to have been received one (1) U.S. business day after you notify Us that you want to cancel your subscription.

Yes, the clause says you may elect to cancel the subscription at any time by visiting the link.  But of course, that link is just to the “My Account” page, which I have already said, contains absolutely no way of cancelling the subscription.  If that is not misleading and deceptive, then I don’t know what is!

Fortunately, I remembered I got an email from NBA League Pass when I first signed up ([email protected]) and I was able to respond to it.  I made it clear that I wanted to cancel and was not happy about my inability to do so.

About seven hours later I got a response that simply said:

Your NBA League Pass subscription has been canceled. Please let us know if you have additional questions.

There you go.  In the meantime, I will continue to use the League Pass until it expires in a few days.

It just amazes me that something like this could happen.  This is the type of tactic you might expect to see from semi-scam sites, but not something as supposedly respectable as the NBA League Pass.  I’m not sure if the problem stems from the fact that I’m a non-US user, but even so, it’s unacceptable.  Not a happy customer.

Has anyone else had a similar problem?

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Danny Granger named Most Improved Player!

May 13, 2009 in Basketball, Indiana Pacers, NBA

The only bright spot of the Indiana Pacers’ season (unless you believe the spin doctors as Pacers.com) has continued to shine brightly.  Danny Granger, who was a first-time All-Star this year, has been named the NBA’s Most Improved Player (MIP) for the 2008-2009 season.

The MIP was the last award to be handed out, and it was also the closest, with Granger edging out early favourite Devin Harris (of New Jersey) by a point total of 364-339.  Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant was a distant third with 83 points.

Granger joins Jalen Rose (1999-2000) and Jermaine O’Neal (2001-2002) as the third Pacer to win this award.

Before discussing anything further, let’s check out some of Granger’s highlights of the season.

Did he deserve it?

In my earlier post on NBA Award Winners for 2008-2009, I said I hoped for a Granger win but I thought Harris would get it (based on his strong performance early on in the season) and Durant deserved it most!  But clearly, the voters thought otherwise, and much of it probably had to do with (1) Granger’s improvement on offense; (2) Granger’s clutch performances; and (3) Granger becoming the clear face and future of the Pacers’ franchise.

(1) Granger’s improvement on offense

Statistically, the only significant jump in Granger’s game has been his points per game.  In 67 games this season, he averaged 25.8 points per game, good for 5th in the league.  In doing so, he became the first player in NBA history to up his scoring average by at least 5 points for 3 consecutive seasons (7.5 as a rookie, 13.9 in his sophomore year and 19.6 last season).  He also became one of the best 3-point shooters in the league (despite bombing out in the first round of the 3P Contest), hitting over 40% while putting up almost 7 shots behind the arc per contest.  And how is this for a fact?  Granger has hit more 3 pointers in his first 4 seasons than Reggie Miller did (493 to 419)!

While his shooting percentages remained virtually identical (with a slight improvement in FT%), Granger put up an average of 4 more shots per game this season compared to last (from 15.1 to 19.1, including 5.3 to 6.7 in 3-point attempts).  He also increased his free-throw attempts from 4.7 to 6.9 per game.  Bear in mind, Granger played only 0.2 minutes more per game this season than the previous season (36.0 to 36.2).

As impressive as that is, Granger didn’t really improve by much in many other aspects of his game, at least on paper.  He improved in blocks from 1.1 to 1.4 and assists from 2.1 to 2.7, but his stats actually got worse in steals (1.2 to 1.0), turnovers (increased from 2.1 to 2.5, though that comes with the territory of being the primary offensive option) and most noticeably, in rebounds, which saw a drop from 6.1 to 5.1 per game.

However, the general consensus from players and coaches around the league is that Granger has really upped his game this season.  Rather than being just another good offensive player (of which there are many in the NBA), he’s taken it to another level with his shot-making ability and versatility.  He can shoot 3-pointers at over 40%, is extremely efficient from mid-range, can drive the ball and get to the line, where he is as steady as they come.  He doesn’t overwhelm you with speed or power or thundering dunks, but he gets the job done in a variety of ways.  As Granger said himself, “I think in my fourth year, I just had the experience of playing a lot of minutes.  I could read defenses a lot better. I could get my shot a lot easier than what I had in the past. I think I just thought my way through the game a little more than I had previously.”

Another factor that must have crept into voters’ minds is that Granger finished off the season strong, whereas Harris and Durant dropped off from their frenetic pace earlier on in the season.  As I noted in another post, Granger averaged 31.1 points per game in his final 11 games of the year, leading the Pacers to a 7-4 record.  The Pacers were also much closer to the playoffs than the Nets or the Thunder.

(2) Granger’s clutch performances

Granger was clutch this season

Granger was clutch this season

The Pacers had been longing for another guy they can count on in the clutch ever since Reggie Miller retired (Jermaine O’Neal just wasn’t getting it done!).  Well, judging from Granger’s late-game heroics this season, it appears the wait is finally over.  He hit a couple of game-winners: to beat Houston (a tip in) and Phoenix (a 3 at the buzzer).  He also hit several big shots down the stretch (including a big game-tying 3 against the Hornets, before Chris Paul drained one of his own at the buzzer) and ranked among league leaders in points in 4th quarters (4th behind Lebron, Kobe and D-Wade).  He actually led the NBA in a statistic calculated by STAT Inc called ‘field goals made with the game on the line’.  According to this stat, Granger made 7 baskets (in 10 attempts) in the final 24 seconds of the final quarter of a game in which the margin was three points or less.  Obviously this needs to be taken with a grain of salt considering the Pacers played more close games than any other team in the league.

Becoming a big-time player is another important step in Granger’s development and will enable him to distinguish himself from the other ‘good’ players in the league.  Lots of players in the NBA can put up points, but few have a reputation for being able to do so consistently in crunch time.

That being said, guys like TJ Ford, Jarrett Jack and Troy Murphy also hit a few game-winners for the Pacers this season, but when the game is on the line, Granger should be their first option.

By the way, I’m certain that Harris and Durant hit some big shots this season, but I can’t be bothered looking them up.

(3) Granger becoming the clear face and future of the franchise

I’m not sure if you can really call this an ‘improvement’, but Granger has stepped into the role of franchise leader admirably this season.  Of course, he became so by default, with Jermaine O’Neal finally being put out of his misery (by getting traded) and with Mike Dunleavy Jr battling serious injury all year.  Arguably, however, he would have become the face of the franchise this season even if those two guys were still playing and in Indiana.  Some may say he already became the face of the franchise last season.

Nevertheless, he has done well in the role, setting the example with his work ethic and lifestyle off the court, which has been particularly important for the Pacers given the indiscretions in recent years that have alienated their fans.  He’s become one of the best offensive players in the league, earned a reputation for hitting big shots and is now recognised as THE guy that opposing teams are most concerned about when they play the Pacers.

Team president Larry Bird sums it up as follows: “He is the face of our franchise, and he handles himself well on the court and off.  I think going forward, he will continue to do the things he’s doing, and continue to improve. That’s all you can ask for.”

Earlier on in the season, people were saying that Devin Harris had become the face of the New Jersey Nets, but I’m not sure Vince Carter has handed the mantle over yet.  On the other hand, Durant is undoubtedly the face of the Thunder franchise, but he came into this league with that reputation as the second overall pick, and there really isn’t anyone else on the cellar-dwelling Thunder squad that can come close to competing.  By contrast, Granger was drafted 17th in the first round and has gradually evolved into the franchise-player role over the past couple of years.  There aren’t many players in the NBA these days that come into the league with as little hype as Granger had that end up attaining a reputation bordering on superstar level (well, at least ‘above-average star’ level) in just four years.

So, if you are simply looking at statistics, there are probably players who appear more deserving than Granger to win the MIP award.  But if you factor in these other considerations, which I’m sure the voters did, perhaps Granger is the most deserving after all.

What’s next for Granger?

Get that wafer out of here, Von!

Get that wafer out of here, Von!

For Granger to evolve from Most Improved to true superstar, he needs to become more than just a scorer.  He does have the occasional highlight block, but for the most part his defensive brilliance has been sporadic this season.  Both Coach Jim O’Brien and Larry Bird have both remarked that Granger needs to improve on defense because he has the potential to be a great defensive player with his athleticism and long arms, but often loses focus because he is so dedicated to the offensive end.

Next season, Granger intends to establish himself as a genuine defensive stopper, kind of like what MVP Lebron James did this season.  It’s a bit of a stretch to expect Danny to land on the All-NBA First Defensive Team as Lebron did this season, but he needs to make some visible strides.  Granger has made this his focus next season:  “I don’t just want to be a better defender, I want to be an elite defender,” he said. “I really modeled my defensive game after Ron Artest when he was here. He was a phenomenal defensive player when he was here. I probably got away from that the past two years. Next year, that will be my big focus…We scored a lot of points but we also gave up a lot of points and I think as a leader it starts with me. I have to be better on the defensive end.”

As long as he ONLY models his defensive game after Ron Ron that would be fine, but let’s just hope he doesn’t pick up anything more than that!

Additionally, Granger needs to improve those playing around him.  Part of that will involve Granger becoming a better distributor of the ball.  2.7 assists per game is not too shabby for a small forward, but to put himself in the same sphere as a D-Wade or Kobe or a healthy Tracy McGrady (note I left out Lebron because he’s in a sphere of his own), he’ll need to improve on that drastically.  He should get his opportunities as I’m sure he’ll face some double teams next season.

Lastly, there was some mention of Granger being on the 2012 US Olympic team.  That’s an interesting idea because Granger is an excellent shooter and is fundamentally sound enough to play the international game.  He will also learn a lot from his teammates on being a better leader.  As long as it doesn’t tire him out for the regular season then I’m all for it.

NBA Awards Round Up

So, all the NBA Awards for this season are out.  Just to recap:

MVP: Lebron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)

Defensive Player: Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic)

Rookie: Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)

Most Improved: Danny Granger (Indiana Pacers)

Sixth Man: Jason Terry (Dallas Mavericks)

Coach: Mike Brown (Cleveland)

Amazingly, I managed to predict all the winners (not that they were difficult this year) with the exception of Granger!  As a Pacers fan, I ought to be ashamed.

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2009 NBA Playoff Predictions: Second Round

May 3, 2009 in Basketball, NBA

Shortly after Round 1 of the 2009 NBA playoffs ended with the Atlanta Hawk’s game 7 thrashing of the Miami Heat (thereby ending the possibility of a dream matchup between Lebron James and Dwayne Wade), Round 2 began with game 1 between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks.

So I better get my picks for the Conference Semi-Finals in before that game finishes!

Eastern Conference

Will the Hawks stand a chance against Lebron and the Cavs?

Will the Hawks stand a chance against Lebron and the Cavs?

1 Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16) vs 4 Atlanta Hawks (47-35)

The Cavs finished the first round in style, blowing out a weary Detroit Pistons squad in 4 straight games.  The Hawks, on the other hand, came out on top after a grueling, seesawing 7-game series against the Miami Heat.  Seeing that the Cavs have home-court advantage and won the season series 3-1, it’ll be outrageous to bet against them in this series.  Plus I don’t see anyone on the Hawk’s squad (or in the NBA, for that matter) that can stop Lebron the way he’s playing right now.  The question really should be whether the Hawks can win a game or two against them.  My guess is that they can, but just one.  Cleveland in 5.

2 Boston Celtics (62-20) vs 3 Orlando Magic (59-23)

The Celtics just came off possibly the greatest first round series of all time by finally disposing of the resilient Chicago Bulls in 7 amazing games.  The Magic toppled the Philadelphia 76ers in an uneven, inconsistent 6-game series.

This will be a tough one to call.  Without Kevin Garnett, stopping Dwight Howard will be that much tougher than it already is, but on the other hand, the Celtics do have the championship experience.  Further, they have the big-time players in Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, plus Rajon Rondo demonstrated just how good he can be.  Rafer Alston will no doubt have his hands full.  In my opinion, this series will come down to whether Howard’s supporting cast can step up and hit the shots when called upon.

If I was calling this series at the beginning of the playoffs, I would have said the Magic in 6 against a KG-less Celtics.  But after seeing how the Magic played against the 76ers in the first round, my gut instinct is to go with the defending champs.  Boston in 7.

Western Conference

Artest will do his best to ruffle Kobe's feathers

Artest will do his best to ruffle Kobe's feathers

1 Los Angeles Lakers (65-17) vs 5 Houston Rockets (53-29)

Yao Ming finally got out of the first round – but he’s going to find out just how hard it is to get past the second.  After overcoming the inexperienced Portland Trailblazers in 6, the Houston Rockets will face last year’s Western Conference Champions, the LA Lakers, who defeated the Utah Jazz in 5.

The season series wasn’t even close, with LA sweeping it 4-0.  However, with Andrew Bynum at less than 100%, Yao Ming will have opportunities to dominate.  For the Rockets to have a chance, Yao really needs to be more than just a 20-10 guy this series.  If he doesn’t assert himself and start having big games (and I mean 30+ points a night), it could be a short series.

On the other hand, no one can stop Kobe Bryant, but Ron Artest and Shane Battier are just about the best anyone could hope for.  They also need to make Kobe work hard on the defensive end.  If Artest can rough up Kobe a little bit then things could get interesting.   The real question is whether the Rockets can stop the likes of Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol or have the firepower to stay with the Lakers’ high octane offense.

In the end, I think Houston will give LA a tougher test than most Lakers fans are willing to imagine, but they won’t be able to beat them.  Los Angeles in 6.

2 Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs 6 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

Denver was so much more impressive than I thought they would be against the New Orleans Hornets, whom they eliminated in 5 games.  Dallas also did well to knock off perennial contender San Antonio in 6 games, though the Spurs were clearly operating at less than full capacity.

Another difficult series to pick.  Jason Kidd is lucky that they are facing the Nuggets instead of the Hornets, because he would have been burnt even worse by Chris Paul than he did by Tony Parker.  Chauncey Billups is great, but as he’s not the speedy type, it’s a good matchup for Kidd.  Dirk will no doubt have a big series, but I see the X-factor for the Mavs being newly crowned 6th Man of the Year Jason Terry.  He’s the type of player that can catch fire and turn a game around in a hurry.  For the Nuggets, JR Smith and Nene are their keys to victory.  Smith is also a guy that can light it up real quick, and Nene can make a difference in the middle with his defensive presence.

The two teams appear to be pretty evenly matched on paper.  However, I think home-court advantage will play a factor here, so I will say Denver in 7.

PS: How my Round 1 predictions stacked up

I am an admittedly bad predictor when it comes to sports, but I don’t think I did too bad in the first round (full analysis here).  The only series I got wrong was Atlanta vs Miami, where I declared that the Heat would prevail in 6 games (I was probably blinded by my desire to see Lebron vs D-Wade).

In terms of guessing the number of games per series, I correctly guessed that the Rockets would beat the Trailblazers and the Magic would beat the 76ers, both in 6 games, but that was it.  I gave too much credit to Detroit, New Orleans and San Antonio, but not enough to Chicago and Utah.

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2009 NBA Playoff Predictions: First Round

April 17, 2009 in Basketball, NBA

Here are my predictions for the first round of the 2009 NBA Playoff (set to kick off on Saturday18 April 2009).  This is one of the most intriguing first rounds in years, where almost every lower seed at least has a chance of pulling off the upset (in my opinion anyway).  Each series is first to 4 wins (max of 7 games).

Eastern Conference

1 Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16) vs 8 Detroit Pistons (39-43)

Prediction: Cavs in 5

With the likely MVP Lebron James leading Cleveland to the best record in the NBA, it’s hard to pick against them.  Their confidence is sky high and they’ve played with a swagger (s0me say arrogance) all year.  Detroit, on the other hand, has been in complete disarray since the Allen Iversion trade, looking nothing like the perrenial 50-win team they had been for the last 6 or 7 years.  I was close to calling this series a sweep, but I think the Pistons have too much pride for that to happen, and perhaps might be able to catch the Cavs off-guard in one of the games, but no more than that.

2 Boston Celtics (62-20) vs 7 Chicago Bulls (41-41)

Prediction: Celtics in 6

This is a hard one to call.  Boston hasn’t looked so vulnerable all season, with emotional leader Kevin Garnett possibly out for the entire playoffs.  Conversely, the Bulls have streaked to the 7th seed and with exciting rookie Derrick Rose leading the way, they must be feeling good about their chances.  However, it’s difficult to deny the 21 game gap between the two teams and the fact that the Celtics are the defending champs.  There’s no doubt they’ll be playing their hearts out until KG gets back (if he does), and in any event, their record without KG has still been pretty impressive.

3 Orlando Magic (59-23) vs 6 Philadephia 76ers (41-41)

Prediction: Magic in 6

I was tempted to say Orlando in 4 or 5 because I think they are that much better than the 76ers,  but their play to close out the season hasn’t been particularly inspiring.  However, Philly hasn’t been playing particularly strong lately themselves, so the outcome is a bit up in the air.  On top of that, Orlando has been nursing some injuries, so I don’t think it will be as easy as some think.

4 Atlanta Hawks (47-35) vs 5 Miami Heat (43-39)

Prediction: Heat in 6

Going with gut instinct on this one.  The two teams have similar records though Atlanta has home court advantage – but Miami has Dwayne Wade.  I’m expecting a spectacular series from him and I don’t think anyone on the Hawks can stop him.

Western Conference

1 LA Lakers (65-17) vs 8 Utah Jazz (48-34)

Prediction: Lakers in 4

I want to believe that Utah can pull out a game or two, but I think the Lakers are just too strong and too confident.  Carlos Boozer hasn’t seemed right all season and the Jazz haven’t played well to end the season.  The Lakers will be looking to come out and make a statement in the first round so they can intimidate the other teams they’ll meet later.

2 Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs 7 New Orleans (49-33)

Prediction: Nuggets in 7

There’s only 5 games separating the 2nd and 7th seeds, so I think home court advantage will play a big factor.  I’m think Chris Paul will be sensational but Denver will prevail in the end.

3 San Antonio (54-28) vs 6 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

Prediction: Mavericks in 6

I feel a little sorry for the Spurs, because they’ll have their hands full without Manu Ginobili and with Duncan only at half-strength.  No doubt Tony Parker will absolutely burn Jason Kidd this series but I don’t think he win this series alone.

4 Portland Trailblazers (54-28) vs Houston Rockets (53-29)

Prediction: Rockets in 6

Even though these Rockets don’t have much playoff experience beyond the first round, they at least have more experience than the Blazers, and I think ultimately that will be a factor.  If Yao has a big series I can’t see Houston losing.  Portland doesn’t have anyone that can stop him, and they have rugged defenders such as Ron Artest and Shane Battier to throw at Brandon Roy.

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