2014 Oscar Predictions: Who Should Win and Who Will

February 27, 2014 in Movie Reviews, Reviews

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With just a handful of days before the 86th Academy Awards, and having just completed my sweep of the Best Picture nominees, it’s time for my annual Oscar predictions!

This has been a fantastic year in cinema — much better than the lackluster year before — with some very deserving nominees that could have crushed last year’s field. Again, true stories have paved the way, with six of the nine Best Picture nominees all supposedly based on or inspired by real events. And to make things more exciting, it’s quite an open field this year, with several intriguing possibilities in all the major categories.

So, without further ado, these are my picks.

Best Picture: (click on the film for my review)

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wold of Wall Street

Comments: An impressive field this year where I awarded at least 4.5 stars to six of the nine films and at least four stars to all but one. There is no clear cut favourite, with early frontrunner  American Hustle seemingly falling behind Golden Globe winner 12 Years a Slave. The critically acclaimed Gravity also lurks, though at the moment it appears the Best Picture award is down to a two-horse race. I love a bit of suspense.

Prediction: 12 Years a Slave — ticks the right boxes for a Best Picture winner and it appears there’s too much momentum to slow it down now.
Dark horse: American Hustle — the early favourite could have grabbed enough votes before voting closed.
Should win: Gravity – a transcendent movie experience that will become the most memorable film of the lot years down the track.

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Best Actor

Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Comments: A real open race this year, with the buzz surrounding Chiwetel Ejiofor’s amazing performance in 12 Years a Slave pushing him slightly ahead at this stage. But losing weight for a role is always a winner’s signpost, and Matthew McConaughey sure lost a lot of weight for Dallas Buyers Club, so he could certainly also take home the award. Bruce Dern, as the oldie, is the sentimental favourite as the insufferable father in Nebraska, while Leo and Batman (no, not Ben Affleck) are also still in it with a chance. Anyone could win this one.

Prediction: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Dark horse: Matthew McConaughey
Should win: Chiwetel Ejiofor — in a year of sensational performances, I simply have to go with the one I believe is the best of the lot, by a hair or two. I do think Leo’s performance in The Wolf of Wall Street would have been deserving in almost any other year, and I was genuinely moved and impressed by Bruce Dern in Nebraska. I’d be happy if any of those three won it.

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Best Actress:

Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Comments: What a crazy field this year, with all former winners except for Amy Adams, who is no slouch with five career nominations. The only one I haven’t seen out of the five is Meryl in August: Osage County (I intend to see it soon), but we pretty much know by now what we’re going to get with her every time. Another open race, with the award reportedly being “Cate Blanchett’s to lose” until the resurfacing of the Woody Allen scandal took the shine off her recent wins at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. Right now I’d say it’s a two-horse race between Blanchett and Adams; a three-horse race if you consider the fact that you can never count out Meryl.

Prediction: Amy Adams — I’m going for the upset! Seriously, it’s a toss up between Adams and Blanchett, but I think the Woody Allen thing plus Amy being the only winless nominee could finally get her over the line this time. If we’re talking about the best performance it’ll probably be Meryl every time, but these awards are so political that it’s hard to predict what will happen.
Dark horse: Cate Blanchett — really the favourite as opposed to the dark horse.
Should win: Cate Blanchett

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Best Supporting Actor:

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Comments: The hardest to pick of the lot, in my opinion, and I’ve seen all of the films! Newcomer Barkhad Abdi has the surprise element going for him but it’s hard to imagine voters picking him over his more famous counterparts. The only guy I can’t see winning is Jonah Hill, because let’s face it, the world as we know it would end if Jonah Hill becomes an Oscar winner. On the other hand, Cooper and Fassbender’s statuses as sex symbols could also cost them with voters, so I’m inclined to go with…

Prediction: Jared Leto — historically speaking, people who undergo dramatic physical transformations have a good chance of winning. Nicole Kidman (nose) in The Hours, Halle Berry (plain) in Monster’s Ball, Charlize Theron (fat and uglified) in Monster are just some examples, but they were all Best Actress winners. I’m pretty much picking Leto, who plays a transsexual AIDS sufferer, by default, however, as I can find potential reasons for not choosing the other guys.
Dark horse: Barkhad Abdi — he’s pretty much the Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) this year, a feel good story about a guy with no acting experience. If voters can’t decide among the other nominees he could come out ahead.
Should win: Michael Fassbender — tough choice but I thought he was incredible in such a difficult role in 12 Years a Slave.

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Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

Comments: Another relatively open field with the tortured Lupita Nyong’o from 12 Years a Slave regarded as the slight favourite ahead of Jennifer Lawrence. But I think Sally Hawkins was fantastic in Blue Jasmine and I fell in love with June Squibb after seeing Nebraska, so I don’t think it’s necessarily a foregone conclusion that it’s a two-horse race.

Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o — I’d say Jennifer Lawrence would have won it had she not already picked up Best Actress last year for Silver Linings Playbook.
Dark horse: Jennifer Lawrence — but everyone loves her so much that she might just win it anyway.
Should win: June Squibb — she stole every scene she was in in Nebraska and delivered the biggest laughs in one of the funniest films of the year.

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Best Director:

David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Steve McQueen (Steve McQueen)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Comments: A toss up between Steve McQueen, who could become the first ever black director to win the award, and Alfonso Cuarón, whose incredible vision gave us the masterpiece Gravity.

Prediction: Steve McQueen — remember the year when Denzel didn’t deserve it but won for Training Day anyway because it was all about the first black winner for Best Actor? I have a feeling history is about to repeat itself, except McQueen actually deserves it.
Dark horse: Alfonso Cuarón — it’s hard to imagine a film as great as Gravity not getting anything other than the technical awards.
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón — I know I said McQueen deserves to win, but in my opinion Cuarón deserves it more for sticking to his guns despite pressure from producers and delivering one of the most amazing movie experiences of the last decade. Those trademark long, seemingly uncut sequences throughout the film were magical.

Best Original Screenplay:

American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell)
Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack)
Her (Spike Jonze)
Nebraska (Bob Nelson)

Comments: A no-brainer that the winner should be the incredible Her, which would have probably been a piece of crap but for the script by Spike Jonze. Don’t get me wrong, all the original screenplays are great, but Her is just on another level.

Prediction: Spike Jonze (Her) – it’s his to lose.
Dark horse: Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine) — maybe some people out there still like Woody.
Should win: Spike Jonze (Her)

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
Philomena (Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope)
12 Years a Slave (John Ridley)
The Wolf of Wall Street (Terence Winter)

Comments: Another difficult choice to make, but it’s hard to see voters passing on the wonderful adaptation of the book of the same name by John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. Usually the screenplay and Best Picture go hand in hand, so it’s hard to see this one going to anyone else.

Prediction: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Dark horse: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight) — everyone loves these guys.
Should win: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight) — after three brilliant films, I think some recognition should go to Linklater, Delpy and Hawke. After all, the trilogy is mainly all talking, and yet after nearly 300 minutes of it we still can’t get enough of these brutally honest and lovable characters.

OK, so that takes care of the major categories. As for the rest of the nominees, I will just list them and highlight the predicted winner in bold, then add my thoughts on the category.

Visual EffectsGravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness
Comments: As impressive as the effects were in all the nominees, this one is a no brainer and a near lock.

Animated FeatureThe Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest and Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises
Comments: I’ve only seen Frozen and Despicable Me 2 out of this list, but it seems to me like a pretty weak field this year.

Animated ShortFeral, Get a Horse, Mr Hublot, Possessions, Room on the Broom
Comments: No idea, so I went with the best title.

Documentary FeatureThe Act of Killing, Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square, 20 Feet From Stardom
Comments: I intend to see some of these eventually, but for now I’m going with the one that’s getting a lot of hype.

Documentary ShortCaveDigger, Facing Fear, Karama Has No Walls, The Lady in Number Six: Music Saved My Life, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Comments: No idea, but the ones with the really long names annoy me.

Foreign Language FilmThe Broken Circle Breakdown, The Great Beauty, The Hunt, The Missing Picture, Omar
Comments: Haven’t seen any of these yet, but The Huntwith the awesome Mads Mikkelsen, is apparently extremely good.

Live Action ShortAquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything), Helium, Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?), The Voorman Problem
Comments: Why do short films have to have such bloody long names?

CinematographyThe Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners
Comments: I expect Gravity to sweep most of the minor awards it’s nominated for, though the cinematography in both The Grandmaster and Nebraska were excellent.

Costume DesignAmerican Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years a Slave
Comments: The Great Gatsby was considered a relative disappointment overall, but its glitzy costumes should get some consolation.

Makeup and HairstylingDallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger
Comments: Considering the other nominees, I’d say this one’s a lock.

Original ScoreThe Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr Banks
Comments: I’d like to say Gravity or Her, but considering how important the music was in Saving Mr Banks (which I watched last night), I think it’ll take home the gong.

Original SongHappy (Despicable Me 2), Let It Go (Frozen), The Moon Song (Her), Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
Comments: I think Let It Go is the best song of the lot, but the U2 factor and the Mandela factor will make Ordinary Love hard to beat.

Production DesignAmerican Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years a Slave
Comments: A bit of a stab in the dark here, but as American Hustle isn’t getting a whole lotta love I think it has to take home something, though having said that, the production design was pretty good.

EditingAmerican Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave
Comments: Hard one to pick, but let’s face it, the editing in Gravity was amazing. Captain Phillips could be a dark horse.

Sound Editing: All Is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor
Comments: Again I’m going with the brilliant Gravity with Captain Phillips being the dark horse.

Sound MixingCaptain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor
Comments: Ditto as per above.

I’ll be checking back to see how many I get right on Oscar night!

Post-Oscars Movie Blitz: Beasts of the Southern Wild (2012)

July 11, 2013 in Movie Reviews, Reviews

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I have a bit of time on my hands right now, so I plan to get as much of my backlog cleared up
as possible.

Beasts of the Southern Wild is the last of this year’s Best Picture nominees I’ll be reviewing. It was the critics’ darling because it was imaginative and original, made on a shoestring budget, and spearheaded by young Quvenzhane Wallis, the youngest ever actress to receive a Best Actress nomination. Like the film, its success was a bit of a fantasy.

But I’ll be honest now and admit I didn’t love it. Well, more like I didn’t get it. At least not to the extent of those singing its praises.

It’s a hard film to outline. On a basic level, it’s about a five-year-old girl named Hushpuppy (Wallis, who was 6 when the film was shot) and her fragile and emotionally charged relationship with her deadbeat dad. They live in an isolated community in Louisiana (apparently they really exist) ravaged by poverty. Meanwhile there is this fantasy element: melting ice caps bringing to life these prehistoric animals that are now coming their way.

So yeah, it’s weird, and no one can say it’s unoriginal. It’s a allegorical story that is deeply personal but set against a wide backdrop, and you never really know what’s going to happen next. It’s driven primarily by Wallis’s remarkable performance, which is full of natural strength and a sense of wonder that a more seasoned child actor probably wouldn’t be able to pull off.

But unlike a lot of others, my emotional attachment to this film was not particularly strong. As interesting as it was to watch, I never felt fully satisfied and was often frustrated with the story. And that whole magic realism thing with the monsters? Didn’t get why it was necessary and what it truly added to the narrative.

I wish I enjoyed it more but I have to tell it like it is. Beasts of the Southern Wild, while scoring points for originality, creativity and raw performances, wasn’t the masterpiece I had expected it to be.

3 stars out of 5

Post-Oscars Movie Blitz: Amour (2012)

July 1, 2013 in Uncategorized

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And so we’re back to my post-Oscars movie blitz (fr0m 2013, that is), with just a couple more waiting in the wings before I can finally move onto something else more…contemporary.

The second last Best Picture nominee I managed to get to is Armour (meaning “love” in French), possibly the most depressing experience I’ve had in years. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a brilliant film that explores the depths of devotion, sympathy, empathy, mortality, and ultimately, what it means to be human, but it’s not the type of movie there you’ll be walking out of the cinema exchanging high fives.

Directed by Michael Haneke, who gave us the frightening Funny Games (both the original and the US remake) as well as 2009′s acclaimed White Ribbon, Amour starts off with a death, and backtracks to the lives of Anne (Emmanuelle Riva) and Georges (Jean-Louis Trintignant), an elderly couple in their 80s.

This is kind of a spoiler, but very early on something happens and one is forced to take care of the other. It’s a heartbreaking and unflinching portrayal of what I’m sure happens to a lot of elderly couples, many of whom don’t have the resources that they do — though that does not make the story any less traumatic.

With this kind of film it’s easy for the director to overplay his or her hand and turn the movie into a sappy, melodramatic mess. However, while Armour undoubtedly tugs the heart strings, it does so a-matter-of-factly, with a sombre dignity and skilled subtlety. It is a deserved winner for Best Foreign Film at this year’s Oscars.

The performances are also remarkable. Riva got most of the acclaim and accolades (including the Best Actress nomination) for the way she portrayed Anne’s fragility, fears and anger, but I thought Trintignant was every bit her equal and the film wouldn’t have been the same without either of them. Isabelle Huppert is also very good as their daughter.

But I can’t honestly say I enjoyed Armour. At 127 minutes, it was a little long, and it felt long because of the deliberately slow pace. And the sense of inevitability just added to the pain and anguish. It’s a film I can certainly appreciate for its filmmaking brilliance, performances and ability to strike hard at the audiences’ emotions, but it’s not a film I would recommend to people looking for something to lift their spirits. Probably also best to avoid if you are old or depressed.

3.5 stars out of 5

Next Year’s Best Picture Oscar Frontrunner

March 9, 2011 in Blogging, Entertainment, Misc

Trailer courtesy of Jimmy Kimmel Live.

I would so pay to see this film.

Pre-Oscars Movie Blitz (Best Picture)

February 28, 2011 in Movie Reviews, Reviews

The Academy Awards are upon us once again, and this year I vowed to watch all the Best Picture nominees before the ceremony. With the list of nominees extended to 10 for the second straight year, this was more difficult than I had anticipated. Fortunately, I had seen most of them already, so there were only three outstanding: Winter’s Bone, The Kids Are All Right, and 127 Hours.

Here goes!

Winter’s Bone (2010)

There’s usually one powerful independent film in the Best Picture mix and this year it’s Winter’s Bone, which has gotten rave reviews from just about every respectable critic out there.

The story feels complex but it’s actually very simple. In an extremely poor rural area, a meth cooker has disappeared while out on bail and his daughter Ree Dolly (Jennifer Lawrence) is looking for him — she has to, because she has two young siblings and a catatonic mother, and their house is collateral for the bail. But the more Ree snoops around the family business, the more trouble she gets into.

I suppose I would call it a gritty drama-thriller. A slow burn with moments of genuine suspense and horror. It’s the perfect example of a well-made indie film — low budget but compelling and well-acted — but I’m not sure I would put it in my top 10 list for the year (and hence Best Picture nominee).

My problem with it is that it rarely gets out of first gear, and all the mumbling makes some of the conversations difficult to decipher. That said, I was intrigued even through all the slow bits, and it was a very bleak and harrowing depiction of rural meth country.

Nevertheless, this film will likely make Jennifer Lawrence (nominated for Best Actress) a big star (she’s already nabbed the role of young Mystique in X-Men: First Class, and had an Esquire photo shoot that was rumoured to be the source of many ‘Winter’s Boners’). It was a knockout performance, subtle and utterly believable. Her co-star John Hawkes (also nominated, for Best Supporting Actor), was also very good.

Overall, a very good film, an excellent indie film, but perhaps because of the lofty expectations I came away slightly disappointed.

3.75 stars out of 5

The Kids Are All Right (2010)

I had no idea what this film was about before I saw it and I didn’t really care — it just didn’t look like the type of film I was interested in. But it’s a Best Picture nominee so I forced myself, and came out pleasantly surprised.

If there’s one movie I would compare The Kids Are All Right to (in terms of style and feel), it would have to be American Beauty. It’s one of those quirky dramas about suburban life in America, with genuine dramatic elements but also plenty of witty laughs and awkward moments.

Without giving away too much, it’s about a lesbian couple (Annette Bening and Julianne Moore), their kids (Mia Wasikowska (Alice in Wonderland) and Josh Hutcherson) and the sperm donor (Mark Ruffalo). As usual, the less known the better.

I would say this is a borderline deserving Best Picture nominee if we’re talking about a list of 10 (which is still pretty darn good in a relatively strong year). It had a fabulous script with terrific dialogue that’s amusing while remaining strangely realistic, plus killer performances by all involved. The standout for me was Mark Ruffalo (Best Supporting Actor nominee), who was just such a fantastic character.

Even though I wouldn’t consider this a classic or a particularly memorable film, I still really enjoyed it.

4 stars out of 5


127 Hours (2010)

I was vary wary of watching 127 Hours, and it’s not just because of the gruesomeness most viewers knew they were about to encounter. It’s because it’s a story where it’s predominantly one guy in one place (think Buried, which a lot of people loathed) and you knew exactly what was going to happen at the end because it’s a true story.

But my concerns were absolutely unfounded. 127 Hours is hands down one of the best films of 2010 and a deserving Best Picture nominee (even if there were just five instead of 10). Full credit to Danny Boyle (who won for Slumdog Millionaire a couple of years ago) for overcoming all the obstacles I thought this film would have and delivering such an emotionally involving, jubilant, triumphant motion picture.

Just in case you’re one of the three people on earth who don’t know the story of Aron Ralston (James Franco), I won’t say much. I just wonder how I would have received the film had I not known about his amazing story, but the impressive thing is that I was still completely absorbed by the film despite that dreaded feeling of inevitability.

I thought there was going to be a lot of extended flashback sequences, but to Boyle’s credit, there were surprisingly few. Some clever use of sound and sporadic dream sequences pushed the plot right along and kept it interesting and eventful for the entire 94 minute running time.

Of course, you can’t talk about this film without mentioning the ‘masterful’ performance from James Franco (a strange word for the guy from Pineapple Express), who has become one of my favorite actors. Is there anyone in Hollywood more affable than him right now?  Who else could have carried a film like this from start to finish?  It’s a shame he’s going up against virtual lock Colin Firth this year.

I loved this film and can’t believe I passed up two advanced screening opportunities last month.  If I redo my Top 10 Films of 2010 this would probably be in the top 5.

4.5 out of 10!

 
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